Smelters exhibited strong price-holding intentions, coupled with downstream enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement, resulting in subdued trading activity in the spot market. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract, March 31, 2025 The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) jumped initially and then pulled back during the morning session. It opened at 288,000 yuan/mt, briefly surged to 289,500 yuan/mt amid macro policy disturbances and supply-demand imbalance, but faced resistance and retreated, closing at 283,100 yuan/mt by midday, up 0.67% from the previous settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range was 284,800-289,500 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing by 719 lots to 40,700 lots, reflecting cautious market sentiment. LME tin prices also fluctuated, trading at $35,710/mt during the Asian session, with enhanced linkage between SHFE and LME markets. US Fed policy disturbances: Despite expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut within the year, the latest remarks from the Chicago Fed President that "inflation stickiness still needs to be monitored," coupled with the US announcement of additional tariffs on copper (which may spill over to the tin industry chain), pushed the US dollar index up to 104.1, weighing on non-ferrous metal valuations. Inventory pressure persists: SHFE warrants increased to 12,394 mt, while LME inventory dropped to 4,925 mt. Domestic social inventory remains high, with destocking speed lagging behind historical levels. Spot market: Smelters maintained strong pricing intentions, but downstream procurement was mainly based on rigid demand, with sluggish trading activity, reflecting limited acceptance of high prices on the demand side. Midday outlook: The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a sideways movement within the range of 285,000-290,000 yuan/mt, with a breakthrough dependent on an escalation of conflicts in the DRC or faster-than-expected resumption of production in Myanmar. If the news of additional US tariffs on copper intensifies in the afternoon, prices may briefly test 290,000 yuan/mt; if Indonesian exports accelerate or domestic inventory buildup exceeds expectations, prices may test the support level of 280,000 yuan/mt.